A stagnant kill zone. Industrial competition to scale long range strike and missile defence. The autocrats are learning from this long and large war. ⬇️

The invasion of Ukraine has lasted longer than World War I. Innovation and adaption continues to be a key feature of this long and large war between a declining superpower and Europe’s largest nation by land mass. Both Russia and Ukraine have mobilised and scaled their industrial base. But Putin isn’t the only Autocrat using this war to advance his interests – Kim Jong Un is making the most of the moment.

The arc of autocrats are transacting in the consumables of combat and the lessons of war. Ways to defeat or mitigate Western Weapons. Measures to modify missiles and munitions to maximise the effect and evade electronic countermeasures. Russia and North Korea’s ‘Mutual Defence Pact’ could see up to 50,000 troops deployed, already over 12 million artillery shells have been provided and now increasingly accurate and effective ballistic missiles are being supplied as CNN reports:

“At least 150 KN 23 or KN 24 ballistic missiles had been sent by North Korea for use inside Ukraine, and another 120 were promised. Such weapons are proving increasingly difficult for Kyiv to shoot down, with supplies of US Patriot interceptors – one of the few systems capable of taking down ballistic missiles pretty much exhausted.”

The Open Source Centre has an in depth interactive article ‘On the Bridge’ which explores the Russian and North Korean logistics and munitions relationship in detail that we’ll add in the comments. This mutually beneficial relationship is turning the hermit kingdom from a punchline to a permanently mobilised middle power and threat to North Asia in particular:

“In exchange for bolstering Russia’s frontline capabilities with troops, shells and missiles, Pyongyang has likely secured hard currency, sensitive military technology, and invaluable combat data… This relationship now stands as a defining feature of the first year of the war, transforming a clandestine supply chain into a permanent, high-stakes partnership that directly underpins Russia’s ability to prosecute its invasion.”

Russia’s war machine is being fed by North Korea’s industrial base. North Korea is scaling its capacity to wage war and using the crucible of conflict to refine and hone the effectiveness and efficiency of its weapons and equipment. North Korea’s deployment dwarfs any contribution Australia has made to multinational operations since World War II. The axis of autocrats is learning the lessons of long and large war – best we do so accordingly.

Food for thought as always – see a Council for Foreign Relations backgrounder here.

📷 via NK News