The adaption advantage in near peer war is fleeting. To gain and maintain an edge combatants must develop an adaption loop that copies or counters and then repeats. ⬇️

For the 2026 Chief of Army Symposium in Perth, the new Chief of Army chose the theme ‘Hardwired for Adaption’. During one of the keynotes Military theorist Jim Storr described an innovation loop in war. Where one side gains an advantage, the other seeks to copy or counter. Once the advantage dissipates, the competition for the combat edge begins again.

A great example of this has been the Russian adaption of the Iranian Shahed drone. First by importing large numbers of Shaheds, then by building an indigenous copy – the Geran. Russia and Ukraine have been in an innovation competition ever since, with Russia progressively iterating in response to Ukraine’s counter measures and interceptors. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has a quality long read report ‘From Shahed to Geran‘ that deep dives into this evolution and how Russia has fashioned a fit for combat adaption cycle:

“A model of wartime innovation built around speed, adaptation, and continuous feedback from the battlefield. This is a model that the United States is not currently structured to match, despite its efforts in the LUCAS program to replicate Russia’s success.”

The Geran doesn’t seek to be a great weapon. Best in class is not the goal – good enough is. Good enough to stay just ahead of Ukrainian counter measures and or impose economic attrition through a favourable cost to kill ratio. It is innovation to maintain attrition, where economy and efficiency are far more valuable that exquisite:

“Russia’s achievement is not in any particular component, but in its approach to the underlying production and innovation model: two parallel factories competing on design, aggressive substitution of commercial off-the-shelf components, direct feedback from operators to engineers, permission for factory-floor modifications without lengthy requalification and certifications, and acceptance that a meaningful fraction of fielded units will be experimental.”

Good not great, iterate based on frontline feedback and build the capacity to scale. The new Chief of the Australian Army describes a need to be hardwired for adaption in order to be ready to defend the nation and its interests. But perhaps rewiring is the better term. The West needs to rewire procurement and innovation processes to ready for battle not ready for peace.

Food for thought as always.

📷 of the Geran 5 via United24