Change is constant in the crucible of combat. When observing innovation in War we should ask is this evolutionary, revolutionary or an anomaly? ⬇️
Gen. Jim Rainey, the Commander of Army Futures Command General Jim Rainey joined Ryan Evans on a recent ‘War on the Rocks’ podcast that canvassed ‘How to think about the Future of War’. Gen Rainey has a simple and unpretentious communication style and there are plenty of gems when it comes to thinking about innovation:
“When the Wright Brothers first flew a plane somebody didn’t say we need an Air Force… but I think people looked at the airplane and said okay this is going to do something to warfare that we’re going to have to figure out.”
When a break through in technology occurs, it isn’t always immediately clear what the end use case will be. Often utilisation takes an unpredictable course once in the hands of the warfighter. Gen Rainey has a simple way of considering these changes – is this evolutionary, revolutionary or an anomaly?
While the use of drones and FPV drones in particular has been a key feature of the Ukraine War, in both Ukraine and the Middle East we are seeing layering of mass and precision – both traditional types such as artillery and fast air strike and now emerging consumables of combat such as drones. Foreign Affairs Magazine has a good article considering what drones can and can’t do and how the combination of high cost and low cost systems are evolving:
“Both Ukraine and Israel also continue to rely on traditional, expensive weapons systems, and Israel’s success in Iran in particular required the extensive use of crewed fighter jets. But for modern militaries, uncrewed weapons systems—increasingly enabled by artificial intelligence—are becoming critical for success on the battlefield.”
A high / low mix can be a method to leverage the advantages of legacy exquisite systems while protecting, offsetting or extending with the low cost easily replaceable / repairable consumables of combat. You can’t stay still in the adaption battle that always features in warfare and we commend both the War on the Rocks podcast and Foreign Affairs article to you.
📸 via US Air Force, links to the War on the Rocks podcast and Foreign Affairs article in the comments.