Is our military ready for a marathon or just a sprint? Do we have the quantity, not just the quality, to be genuinely resilient? ⬇️
World leaders fool themselves time and again, into believing wars will be short and aims achievable. But modern wars are long, unintended consequences multiply, and the enemy always gets a vote. Thomas Mahnken’s recent Foreign Affairs piece ‘The American Military’s Coming Marathon’ cuts to the heart of what modern conflicts in our age of chaos actually demand:
“In wars of attrition, military strength becomes a matter of economic and industrial capacity as much as a matter of talent. The controlling variable is not just how skilled troops and commanders are but also how many munitions they have and how quickly they can produce them.”
Mahnken’s argument is simple: quality without quantity loses. In this era of long and large wars between great powers the US and its allies need to be ready for everything, everywhere, all at once.
Ukraine and the recent 39-day bombing campaign against Iran have stress-tested the Western way of war. Strengths are real, but so are the weaknesses. The Center for Strategic and International Studies asks the uncomfortable question directly – ‘Is the US Ready for a War Against China?’ synthesising lessons from recent operations and wargames of Taiwan and South China Sea scenarios. Munitions and magazine depth continues to feature strongly:
“The bad news is that U.S. stockpiles of long-range offensive munitions were low even before the Iran war. During the war with Iran, the U.S. military significantly depleted its stockpile of some long-range missiles — such as Tomahawks and JASSMs — creating significant risk for a possible conflict with China or other contingencies.”
For Australia, the implications are direct. We depend heavily on the very munitions now in scarce supply. Our force structure still reflects unipolar-moment thinking, sized and shaped for a world that no longer exists.
The ADF appears geared for a sprint, assuming that if war comes, we will once again only need to make boutique contributions on a schedule to coalition operations.
Plenty of lessons in both articles should we choose to build resiliency, improve endurance and enhance our autonomy.
📷 via Foreign Affairs and articles mentioned are in the comments.