The brutal reality of supply constraints of the consumables of combat is this: if you don’t make it onshore, you can’t guarantee surety of supply. ⬇️
POLITICO is reporting that the Pentagon has made the difficult decision to prioritise keeping key consumables of combat in its war stocks and has cancelled shipments of much needed missiles to Ukraine:
“The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low. The decision was driven by the Pentagon’s policy chief, Elbridge Colby, and was made after a review of Pentagon munitions stockpiles, leading to concerns that the total number of artillery rounds, air defense missiles and precision munitions was sinking, according to three people familiar with the issue.”
Bridge Colby is a foreign policy realist who has long argued for the US to focus resources on the priority theatre and in deterring China. He’s frank on the state of the US industrial base and its ability to supply the arsenal of democracy. He’s also in charge of the 30 day review of AUKUS and will no doubt be providing his advice on the adequacy of Australian Defence Strategy and the funding of Defence and National Security.
Before you rush to judge the US for taking an ‘America First’ approach and pausing support until stock piles are replenished and / or increased, you need to understand the time it takes to make munitions. We’re going to add one of our favourite open source resources, the CSIS ‘Empty Bins’ article in the comments – refresh your situational awareness of how long it take to resupply the stock of the consumables of combat so many Western nations rely upon.
After our previous post on GWEO changing up plans to build capacity into a future 155mm forge at Benalla this should serve as a reminder that Foreign Military Sales can be relied on to supplement, but if it is your main source of supply you have no surety should the war drums start to beat.
🖼️ via Politico, Politico article and CSIS Empty Bins infographic article in the comments.