Yesterday’s weapons will not win tomorrow’s wars. Are we learning the lessons of contemporary conflict? ⬇️
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has just released a new report and infographic article on ‘Conflict in Focus: Lessons from Russia-Ukraine’. There are lessons identified across each warfighting domain, Defence Industry and National Resilience. Are few points we thought were particularly pertinent for the Australian context:
1️⃣ Battlefield innovation and adaption is essential. Both Ukraine and Russia have developed the ability to rapidly introduce new weapons and equipment into service and adapt tactics, techniques and procedures to gain a temporary edge or counter the opponent. The Australian Defence Force will need a similar capacity – getting good, not perfect consumables of combat into the hands of the warfighter at speed will be vital.
2️⃣ Million dollar missiles are great, but unless you can manufacture at mass simple at speed beats sophisticated at slow time. Simple high explosive munitions delivered by drone or artillery has been the dominant feature of fighting in Ukraine and this has required rapidly increasing industrial capacity to deliver drones and munitions at scale. Ukraine consumes 10,000 small drones a month and 5,000 155mm high explosive rounds per day. How prepared is Australian industry if demand for the consumables of combat become a national priority in the near future?
3️⃣ Logistics will be contested and disrupted. Feeding the frontline the consumables of combat and maintaining the essentials for the homeland will be a key challenge for a nation that has become optimised for unipolar moment just in time globalised supply chains. ‘War demands forced the rapid incorporation of foreign state and private industry equipment and technologies into the … fight’. How prepared is Australia to assured our sea lines of communication, how reliant are our supply chains on nations that may choose to close commerce if conflict occurs?
We’ll finish with a quote from a recent article in The Interpreter titled ‘Did we learn anything from the war in Ukraine’ that reminds us of the challenge of cutting through in this ‘She’ll be right’ stage of heightened competition:
“Ukraine serves as a stark reminder that competition and conflict remain the norm in international relations, a reality largely obscured by the brief liberal moment that followed the end of the Cold War. The assumption that economic interdependence can deter aggression has once again failed – demonstrating that the lessons of the First World War have been all but forgotten. If anything, interdependence has made critical supply chains more vulnerable and wars more costly, but it has certainly not ensured lasting peace.”
We best be ready and resilient in the most dangerous geopolitical circumstances since WWII.
Food for thought!
📷via Wall Street Journal, links to the CSIS and The Interpreter articles in the comments.