There are no conventional silver bullets. The adaption cycle means what works today may not work tomorrow. Take the Tomahawk missile… ⬇️
Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) has an interesting article on the dilemma for the United States when it comes to providing Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. There is no doubt that adding Tomahawk to Ukraine’s arsenal would change the combat calculus – but for how long:
“With a range of up to 2,500 kilometres, the missiles could reach anywhere within Russia, including Moscow, putting thousands of military sites at risk.The Kremlin warned that supplying Tomahawks would be ‘a new step of aggression’ that could lead to a ‘very dramatic moment’ in the war.”
Besides the relatively limited number of platforms such as the US Marine Corps Long Range Fires Launcher and US Army’s Typhon that launch Tomahawks from land there is also the ability for the Russians to adapt and eventually mitigate or overcome the missile itself.
Beaten Zone Advisor Mick Ryan has a quality post on his Substack Futura Doctrina on the adaption cycle and how both Russia and Ukraine are evolving warfare in consistent contest to seize the initiative:
“Over the past three years, both sides in the Ukraine war have learned and adapted. Both sides have learned to learn more quickly and to proliferate lessons into their military and industrial systems. In the past six months the adaptation battle has intensified. It has technical dimensions, but also organisational and doctrinal aspects as well. Ukraine’s adaptive stance is driven by an existential threat that is not apparent to western nations not currently at war. Russia too is now learning and adapting quickly. Where they aren’t innovative, they are fast followers.”
The question may be does the United States want the Russian military industrial complex to be rapidly adapting to overcome the Tomahawk in the crucible of conflict and distributing this learning to fellow autocrats? The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has interesting report on the Tomahawk which we highly recommend you read – some key points that jumped out at us:
1️⃣ There ~ 1,000 missiles in the US stockpile that could be transferred.
2️⃣ The highest annual procurement was ~500 missiles in 2008
3️⃣ Tomahawks to Ukraine comes at a cost to readiness in the Pacific
4️⃣ ‘Massive, sustained and concentrated’ strikes are required to truly impact
It can be hard for big Government, big Defence and the Primes to adapt at the speed required for battle when we ourselves are for now in an uneasy pre conflict peace. This is where entrepreneurs, private capital and small to medium enterprise can come to the fore – speed and flexibility is a must. We need to plan for opponents adapting and overcoming our offensive and defensive capabilities and be ready to innovate and iterate to regain the initiative.
Food for thought as always and all articles mentioned are in the comments.
📷 via the ABC