In the next large war we face, being able to manufacture at mass will be a key combat advantage. Scale, not sophistication should be our aim. ⬇️
As the Cold War ended and the West fought ‘scheduled wars’ against irregular forces in the Middle East, our Defence Industrial base devolved. Mass gave way to artisan assembly lines, lean gave way to largesse and exquisite was favoured over efficient. First Breakfast has a great short read on the ‘Age of Adaptability’:
“For decades, the Pentagon has lived by an Iron Triangle of cost, schedule, and performance. Problem is, this framework has hardwired the system to optimize for perfection at the expense of speed and scale. Programs chase exquisite performance against every conceivable threat scenario, costs balloon, and schedules stretch into decades. By the time a weapon finally arrives, the fight has already changed.”
The West can no longer afford to fight and forge this way. Good at scale beats great but niche in a long war. Systemic advantage is what counts – being able to win the war of battlefield economics through sustaining scale. The small, the smart and the many – we can no longer rely on quality over quantity in an era where technological advantage is only temporary:
“We don’t just need cheaper weapons. We need weapons with metabolism—systems that can evolve, scale, and reconfigure at the speed of the fight. The future won’t reward exquisite systems delivered late. It will reward repeatable advantage: missiles that can be launched by the thousand, updated overnight, manufactured on demand, and launched again.”
This is something that Australia needs to tackle head on. Our Defence Industry is not optimised for mass and efficiency – rather geared for a slow moving procurement process that acquires limited numbers in batches. We need the strategic vision to identify key areas in the new arsenal of democracy where we intend to create onshore capacity to supply to our own needs and those of our Allies.
David Goodrich had a good article in Australian Strategic Policy Institute‘s The Strategist last year – calling not just for a focus on innovation, but on speed and scale. As he calls out, shifting to scale will not be easy:
“Manufacturing at scale is hard. Historically, it’s not been an Australian strength, in fact, we have a history of thinking that the invention of new things is the end of the innovation process. The reality is that at-scale manufacturing is 1000 times harder than innovation. The industrial redesign needs to be properly funded and become the end point of Australia’s sovereign manufacturing strategy.”
We were successful at scale and being a key supplier to the Arsenal of Democracy in World War II. Time to channel the spirit of Essington Lewis and switch from chasing great to getting after the good!
Food for thought!
📷 via ASPI of a WWII Beaufort bomber assembly line – articles mentioned are in the comments.