Long war features the battle for the tactical edge, with the adaption race ascendent. But the ability to sustain and scale will decide the outcome. ⬇️
Beaten Zone Venture Partners advisor Mick Ryan had an excellent article earlier this year in Foreign Affairs magazine on why the war in Ukraine has ground to stalemate – an almost frozen battle where gains are incremental and battle breakthroughs are rare:
“The learning and adaptation battle between Russia and Ukraine is continuing to accelerate as each side improves its ability to learn and share lessons between the battlefield and its national industrial bases. In doing so, these countries are underscoring an old truth: the military institutions that win wars are never the same organizations that begin them. Armed forces that can systemically and strategically adapt will have greater power in both war and peace.”
It is becoming clear, once again, that adaption and innovation alone will not win Wars. Defense One has a short article on this ‘counterintuitive phenomenon’ – that while the speed of innovation and deployment of new technologies in Ukraine is increasing, neither side is seeing significant battlefield gains:
“Ukraine’s “static front line,” as U.S. Army War College professor Frank Sobchak called it in August, also shows that while rapid technology development can erode an opponent’s advantage, it does not necessarily build advantage of its own. The result is a new type of conflict: more nimble operations and far faster invention and deployment of new weapons, but slower decisive wins.”
Australia and our military must be prepared for battlefield adaption and innovation, but we cannot expect for niche brilliance to overcome mass and manufacturing might. Wonder weapons will not substitute for the size of our mobilised military and industrial & supply scale our nation can deliver. As Mick Ryan says, we must relearn the lessons of wars many thought had faded to history:
“At the close of the Cold War, many people believed that the era of large conventional wars had come to an end. National security leaders across the world downsized their countries’ military forces, munition stocks, and production capacity. The situation in Ukraine has shown that such optimism was misguided. As a result, other countries have to increase both the size of their militaries and their ability to provide for them. Western states will have to remember, in particular, how to mobilize for large-scale warfare.”
In preparing for War nations like Australia can make their best contribution to maintaining peace – through strength. Weakness is provocative, particular in a geopolitical context where hard power is once again being leveraged by large and middle powers alike. Our Defence and Industry must be ready.
Food for thought!
📷 via Newsweek, articles from Defense One and Foreign Affairs mentioned are in the comments.