The next cycle of adaption is underway in the sky above Ukraine. Tactics, techniques and technology continue to evolve in the crucible of combat. ⬇️
After adopting Iran’s Shahed attack drones, Russia has scaled domestic production, enhanced design and is now introducing jet engines, armour plating and even commercial off the shelf AI. Shaheds are still far lower cost than missiles and imposes significant cost imposition on Ukraine as it seeks to intercept these consumables of combat.
Forbes has an insightful article on how Russia is seeking to overwhelm Ukraine’s defences but equally how Ukraine is working to find an economical edge to sustain the fight:
“Russia has been using the Shahed for less than three years and has only been making them itself for half that time. But, unlike legacy systems such as cruise and ballistic missiles, the drones have adapted rapidly to counter defensive measures. This mutation rate is perhaps the biggest lesson of the long-range drone war: the threat is constantly evolving.”
Now as Anduril’s Christian Brose says in a quality op-ed he has written in the National Review, the war in Ukraine is different to what we may see if competition gives way to conflict in the Indo Pacific. The relative short range and static land battle requires different tools and techniques than we would need in the littoral. But he highlights the need to design for mass production and with economy in mind. Here’s how he describes Anduril’s low cost cruise missile:
“Anduril’s solution, called Barracuda, is designed around and built with commercial materials, components, and supply chains. It can be assembled by modestly skilled workers with fewer than ten tools available at commercial hardware stores. These weapons will never be as capable as legacy cruise missiles, but they will be much easier and an order of magnitude cheaper to produce.”
In this imperfect world wars will always come and go so the need to stay nimble and respond rapidly is constant. The West has come accustomed to fighting against far weaker foes – near peer conflict and industrial warfare are a different beast. Let’s learn from our friends and foes alike as we prepare in peace.
Food for thought!
📸 via United24 and links to the articles from Forbes and National Review are in the comments.