The tyranny of distance is being overcome. Air and missile defence of the homeland will be key to hardening Australia’s national resilience. ⬇️
Just before Christmas the United States Department of War released its annual report to Congress on Chinese Military and Security developments. If you didn’t have it as part of your summer reading list, a link will be in the comments and we recommend catching up.
One of the sobering assessments was the leap forwards of China’s long range conventional missile capability. The Lowy Institute had an insightful report back in 2021 on China’s missile strike capabilities that will now need updating. Back then China was reliant on air force projection or placing land based launchers on its artificial islands in the South China Sea to bring Australia in range of conventional strike.
The Department of War report has assessed that China’s DF-27 long range ballistic missile is now operational and has a range of between 5,000 – 8,000 km with both land attack and anti shipping variants. That puts almost all Australia capital cities and key Defence bases in range of a road mobile launcher firing from the Chinese mainland. US Naval War College Professor Andrew S Erickson’s analysis of these developments highlights the complexity:
“China’s fielded hypersonic missiles, including its anti ship ballistic missile families, combine very high speed with maneuverability to greatly complicate missile defense and fleet operations. Maneuvering payloads can approach from unexpected azimuths, fly at lower-than-traditional trajectories, and potentially exploit gaps in radar and interceptor coverage.”
Australia’s Defence Strategic Review made it clear and Integrated Air and Missile Defence was a key priority. These developments only exacerbate the need for layered countermeasures that protect critical infrastructure and ADF assets that are likely to appear on a high value target list. A high / low mix of interceptors, electronic counter measures, decoys, hardened assets and tactics like dispersal and non standard routines will be needed to defend Australia in this new strategic context.
Food for thought as always.
🗺️ via Lowy Institute and a link to the Department of War report, Andrew Erickson’s analysis and the Lowy Institute article are in the comments.