The West was convinced we had a sustainable combat advantage. That the qualitative edge, technological high ground and manoeuvre warfare meant long and large war was over. ⬇️

The forever wars. Our present proxy wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The competition and grey zone conflict underway in regions as varied as the Arctic, Africa, Eurasia and the Pacific. Nadia Schadlow has a great piece in Foreign Affairs on ‘America’s Attrition Trap‘ that speaks to a weakness that afflicts all the West:

“Attrition is the defining feature of today’s conflicts. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have become grinding contests over which side can exhaust the other’s military capacity, economic resources, and political will. They all, of course, have unique characteristics, but their similar trajectories reflect a deeper change in how wars now unfold.”

When the first Cold War was ‘won; the West rushed to render peace dividends and bolster profits. Western nations offshored and outsourced the very means that makes attrition achievable – manufacturing mass. The Arsenal of Democracy disassembled to become the globalised supply chains, swallowed up and concentrated by the largest industrial and manufacturing super power the world has ever seen. Whether it was idealistic or naive, the End of History has given way to a multipolar world where the Autocrats and their proxies no longer fear our way of war.

Opponents of the West now look to outlast and exhaust in war. The will to fight and the ability to absorb strike, regroup and regenerate is seeing Autocrats and Insurgents alike dragging the West into wars of attrition. Weapons and equipment designed to achieve quick victory with overwhelming technological advantage are losing the battlefield economics equation to cheap precision and affordable mass. The qualitative edge is not the deciding factor it was expected to be and war is once again becoming large as well as long:

“Breaking this pattern will require a change in thinking in Washington. U.S. military leaders must build forces and concepts around the assumption that future wars are unlikely to be resolved quickly, while political leaders must be more realistic about whether the objectives they set can be achieved by military force alone and in a short time frame. Such adjustments will not be easy.”

Consider the difference in dynamics this week as President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump meet.

Food for thought as always

📷 via The White House