While the ‘Justice Mission’ got the world’s attention it is the Tidal Wave report that warrants consideration. ⬇️
In the last few months China and the United States prepared for a potential Taiwanese conflict in two very different ways. China conducted ‘Justice Mission’ – a large scale exercise rehearsing blockade and quarantine operations around Taiwan that made headlines around the world.
Meanwhile, US think tank the Heritage Foundation released a redacted report from its recent Tidalwave wargame. This Artificial Intelligence–enabled model and computer simulation focused on a protracted conflict between the U.S. and China. It is probably a sign your think tank is producing quality insights with the US Government redacts key findings and analysis!
We commend the redacted report to you – but a few points that jumped out at us:
1️⃣ Interceptor missiles get overwhelmed by massed effects. Chinese manufacture of precision weapons is currently 5-6 times greater than the United States. The scale of strike versus interceptors means advantage is with the attacker in this context. Which leads to the next point…
2️⃣ Platform destruction, not munitions exhaustion is the key limiting factor to sustaining a long war for the United States. Your order of battle is no longer combat effective before your munitions are Winchester. Pause for thought for those nations with limited numbers of ships, aircraft etc.
3️⃣ Fuel is highlighted as an essential enabler and vulnerability for both the US and China. The report recommends the US enhance its own Strategic Fuel Reserve and enhance Indo Pacific fuel infrastructure. How’s Australia’s fuel supply resilience looking currently?
One of the key themes in the report was the need to prepare for long war. Large Wars of the 20th century and the war for Ukraine demonstrate that despite the desire for a short and decisive campaign, the ability to endure for years will be vital both for deterrence and should competition give way to conflict:
“History is replete with cautionary tales of the consequences of false assumptions regarding conflict duration. The real and perceived lack of sufficient preparation and the inability to ensure that we can thwart PRC aggression also imply corresponding challenges in controlling escalation… The PLA may continue escalation until compelled to stop if for no other reason than to consolidate gains and safeguard its freedom of action in the First Island Chain.”
Plenty of food for thought in this comprehensive report – read it, identify the opportunities. See the comments for a link to the long read Tidal Wave report.
🗺️ is a CCP propaganda poster via Taiwan Monitor on X. Large lettering translates to ‘plainly visible’ while small text ‘how could you ever attempt independence’.