While the world hopes for the Iran war to end quickly, the regime has other plans. Precise mass and the ubiquitous Shahed drone are a key enabler. ⬇️  

While the West hopes for a quick, surgical conflict, it is clear that the Iranian regime is focused on preservation of power and outlasting the United States’ will to fight. Attacking shipping, infrastructure, and indeed indiscriminate strikes on cities throughout the Middle East is part of this play.

Council on Foreign Relations has a good explainer on the Iranian tactics and the concept of precise mass. The proliferation of precision technology, lowering of barriers to entry, and economies of scale have allowed smaller states and even non state actors to build strike at scale. What was once limited to superpowers is now ubiquitous:

“Precise mass therefore, continues to provide new and expanding options to less powerful states such as Iran—just as it has to Ukraine—but it could do the same for the most powerful countries in the world if they make the needed investments. The intersection of technological change and unit economics means that precise mass will likely become a regular feature of warfare moving forward, just like machine guns or tanks in previous eras.”

With programs such as Ghost Bat and Ghost Shark, Australia shows that we can leverage exquisite autonomous systems to expand our force in being. But it is also clear that we are yet to reckon with both the opportunity and threat that precise mass brings. Ukrainian advice, technology, and experience in managing high volume attacks with drones and decoys have been sought after in the Middle East. As a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) summary of the first week of war, the battlefield IQ and combat experience the Ukrainians have developed is now far ahead of the West:

“Drone-against-drone warfare is becoming a core element of modern air defense. Ukraine’s experience shows that countering large waves of one-way attack drones cannot rely on high-end interceptors alone; it requires systems that can be deployed at scale. Ukrainian forces increasingly use low-cost interceptor drones to counter Shahed-type loitering munitions because they are inexpensive, scalable, and effective over large areas.” 

Let’s leverage the lessons of modern warfare to adapt and evolve out of conflict wherever possible. Be fit for purpose for the most dangerous geopolitical circumstances in our region since WWII.

Food for thought, as always, articles mentioned are in the comments.

📷 via Wall Street Journal