With Australia’s first HIMARS launchers being delivered last month it is timely to consider how long our stocks of missiles would last… ⬇️

Foreign Affairs Magazine has an insightful but challenging article ‘The Empty Arsenal of Democracy’ that really brings home the challenge of the downsized military industrial base of the West:

“The war in Ukraine also exposed just how bare Washington’s military cupboard is. U.S. officials have struggled to supply Kyiv with enough of the weapons it needs, and they have understandably fretted about their own defensive stocks. Although the exact number of missiles the United States has is classified, it is likely a few tens of thousands. Russia has fired almost 12,000 missiles in the last two years.”

While it is great to finally receive HIMARS launchers in the Australian Army, we are currently simply joining the very long queue for limited supplies of largely US manufactured consumables of combat. As we’ve previously stated, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) war games estimate that the US will exhaust existing stockpiles of most missiles within weeks of a large scale combat operation in the Indo Pacific.

Army Recognition is reporting that the US is seeking to greatly expand manufacture of smaller but cheaper GMLRS missiles that HIMARS fire. GMLRS currently have a range of ~70km although an extend range version is in development with a range of 150km. The US is now seeking to expand annual production to ~19k guided rockets per annum but this increase in manufacturing capacity isn’t expected until 2030:

“Existing GMLRS stockpiles have been significantly drawn down due to extensive aid packages provided to partner nations, creating an urgent requirement to replenish and expand inventories. The decision to achieve a production rate of 19,002 rockets per year ensures the U.S. Army can maintain high operational readiness levels, support its global commitments, and build strategic stockpiles for prolonged high-intensity conflicts.”

Lockheed Martin has manufactured ~60k GMLRS in total to date since this munitions class was introduced in the early 2000s. GMLRS are one of the munitions that Australia’s Guided Weapons Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is seeking to assemble and eventually manufacture onshore. But the GMLRS munition is not the missile that allows HIMARS to deliver truly strategic long range fires – that’s the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). And Defence Connect recently reported that Lockheed Martin is in the middle of expanding manufacturing capacity for this key consumable of combat to 400 per year – yep a whole 400.

With capacity constraints like this it could be really useful to provide some home grown alternatives able to be manufactured at scale with as much locally manufactured content as possible!

Food for thought!

📸 via Army Recognition.