In the next war AI won’t be monopolised by those on the side of the free. Satellite imagery, precise mass and AI are disrupting our way of war. ⬇️
Much has been made of Palantir’s Maven Smart System and its integration of Anthropic and OpenAI models. Claude is reported to have assisted military planners in operations targeting Venezuela. OpenAI is now assisting in shortening the US Observe, Orient, Decide and Act (OODA) loop in Iran.
But of course it isn’t just Western companies providing geospatial intelligence as a service and nations like China are developing powerful AI capabilities as well. Now we are seeing Iran, a nation with limited space capabilities develop a targeting enterprise that used to be limited to Western super powers to greatly enhance its own capability.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) has several interesting articles about Iran leveraging Chinese company MizarVision satellite imagery and artificial intelligence to greatly enhance identification of high value targets and inform Iranian targeting cycle. Couple this significant leap in sophistication of targeting with precise mass in drones and missiles and you see outcomes like the strike at Saudi Prince Sultan Airbase which destroyed an E-3 AWACS and damaged several tankers.
Retired Major General Gus McLachlan is quoted in the ABC article and brings his analysis straight to how this technology could impact Australia right now:
“We’re seeing targets, including a US E-3 Sentry plane, being hit with incredible precision. Our forces would take this threat very seriously — and rightfully so … The Australian government would be concerned. It’s a plausible outcome that Australians could be killed by this capability. This is a dangerous development because it empowers the Iranians to choose exactly what to target. Any object left in a spot for 24 hours could be vulnerable, now, to an Iranian targeting cycle.”
AI-enabled targeting, commercial satellite imagery, and precise mass are no longer the exclusive domain of technologically advanced militaries. The barrier to entry has collapsed. Adversaries can now identify, track, and strike high-value targets with a sophistication that was unthinkable a decade ago. We now need to consider how we conduct future operations and defend vital assets accordingly!
Food for thought as always – links to two ABC articles are in the comments.
📷 via ABC – MizarVision imagery of Prince Sultan Airbase on Feb 25. March 27 saw the Iranian strike on this same base.