Gaining advantage in long and large war is temporary. Adversaries adapt and overcome. For now, Ukraine appears to have the adaption edge. ⬇️
For the first time in some years it appears Ukraine has been able to obtain a clear edge in battle. The impact of Russia’s scaled long range strike is increasingly being offset by Ukraine’s air and missile defence. As Russia’s territorial gains grind to a halt, Ukraine is ramping up long range strikes deep into Russian territory against military equipment, bases and Oil & Gas refineries.
The scales have tipped as a result of adaption and innovation. Ukraine has leveraged lessons learned in combat to hone and refine its system and scale successful offensive and defensive technologies – particularly drones. Ukraine’s Defence Minister gave an unvarnished explanation of the strategy to defeat Russia in an interview with the New York Times:
“The strategy, called Air, Land, Economy, envisions using drones and other advanced weapons to intercept at least 95% of incoming Russian drones and missiles; to kill or seriously injure more soldiers than Moscow can recruit; and to weaken the Russian economy by blowing up oil export terminals.”
A scaled Air and Missile Defence system and world leading drone interceptor development has allowed Ukraine to increasingly seize the initiative and put Russia on the back foot. It is now Russia that is playing catch up and fighting to scale interceptor drones and enhance vital asset protection deep into its own territory.
The West can’t afford to wait until conflict to leverage the lessons of the modern battlefield. Combined Arms has evolved to incorporate human and machine teaming. Precise mass can only be countered with a scaled Air and Missile Defence System. The cost to counter must be less than the cost to strike. As Brave1’s CEO Andrii Hrytseniuk points out in The War Zone the only certainty in conflict is that your enemy will adapt and surprise:
“One of the main lessons is that you should never be sure that you are secure enough and your technologies are perfect, because you don’t know what is in the pocket of your enemy. And you always need to be ready for the worst case scenario and permanently improve the level of readiness to counteract or react to absolutely non-predictable different things. And the speed of your reaction is crucial.”
Plenty of food for thought – articles referenced are in the comments as always.
📷 via Militaryni of a General Cherry Bullet Drone-interceptor